Archive - Schwar Capital Research

Why Your Hit Rate Doesn't Matter (And What Actually Does)

The maths behind the world's best investors prove that being right isn't the game. Being right big is.

14 hrs ago • Schwar Capital Research

The Art of Risk Taking

What an ancient military treatise taught me about asymmetric investing.

Apr 6 • Schwar Capital Research

Q1 2026 Roundup

Happy Easter weekend to everyone celebrating - and happy long weekend to everyone else.

Apr 3 • Schwar Capital Research

March 2026

EPS Up 100%, 2.8x EV/EBITDA, and 4.5x Upside If the Optionality Hits

The most asymmetric setup in the portfolio just got stronger.

Mar 30 • Schwar Capital Research

March Portfolio Update

Up 1.2% year-to-date versus -6.4% for the S&P 500. Here's what I'm doing...

Mar 27 • Schwar Capital Research

New Position: Lottery Ticket With 12x Upside Potential

1 day until the catalyst. A 1% portfolio position with asymmetric upside and a single binary event tomorrow.

Mar 25 • Schwar Capital Research

Two Companies I Think The Market Is Mispricing (AT.L, PPIH)

Ashtead Technology delivers FY25 results ahead of expectations at 8x earnings. Perma-Pipe quietly pivots into AI data center infrastructure while…

Mar 23 • Schwar Capital Research

TruFin Final Results: Every Line Beat, the Operating Leverage Is Real (TRU.L)

Audited numbers confirm it. This business is scaling while returning cash to shareholders.

Mar 20 • Schwar Capital Research

My Top 8 Highest Conviction Micro Cap Ideas

We are nearly a Substack Bestseller!

Mar 16 • Schwar Capital Research

KFS Q4 2025: The J-Curve Is Turning

KSX revenue up 64%, sequential EBITDA improving every quarter, double-digit organic growth budgeted for 2026. The thesis is playing out.

Mar 13 • Schwar Capital Research

15 Microcap Ideas on My Watchlist

Monopolies, turnarounds, and regulatory tailwinds the market hasn't priced in yet.

Mar 9 • Schwar Capital Research

ACFN Q4 2025: Down 15% on Record Margins.

Record margins, 22% monitoring growth, a sleeper catalyst the market hasn't priced in. The selloff is overdone.

Mar 6 • Schwar Capital Research

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