Schwar Capital Research

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What I’m Doing in This Sell-Off

Model Portfolio Update #1 | Up 4.9% while small caps are down 9.5%

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Schwar Capital Research
Nov 06, 2026
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The live portfolio is up 4.9% since it started on 1 July.

The Russell 2000, its benchmark, is down 9.5% over the same stretch. That puts the portfolio 15.9% ahead.

Most of that lead came from Ember’s bid for Ashtead Technology in September.

This week tested it. On Thursday the Russell fell 4.4%, in a sell-off market reports put down to worries about AI infrastructure spending and possible curbs on new data centres. The tracker has the portfolio down 2.7% for the day, and back up 1.6% on Friday as Eton’s results landed.

The difference is cash. 41% of the portfolio is in it.

It came from Ashtead. I halved the position on 19 October, two days before Ember’s deadline, and sold the rest on 30 October after Ember’s bid went firm. Neither sale was a call on the market. A bidder had pushed one position far past the size the business had earned, and I cut it back, then sold out when only 1% was left to collect.

The effect is that I came into this week holding a lot of cash and no reason to sell anything. A sell-off is a far better time to be holding cash than to need it.

So I’ve started shopping…


In today’s update:

  • My largest position exits on a recommended cash bid

  • Revenue up 158% and guidance raised again at a rare-disease compounder

  • A first central bank order for a new product

  • Organic profits up 54% at a serial acquirer, but fewer deals this year

  • An 80%-margin monitoring business buys recurring revenue at about 3x sales

  • $28 million of orders in two months, with data centres in the mix

  • Profits up a third for the year, shares down a quarter in a day

  • How I’m putting 41% cash to work

If you would like a reminder on how the model portfolio works, please see this post here:

Introducing the Schwar Capital Model Portfolio

Introducing the Schwar Capital Model Portfolio

Schwar Capital Research
·
Oct 19
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