Up 100% In 76 Days: Revisiting The Rare Disease Thesis After The Run-Up

I initiated this position on June 19 at $30.70. It trades around $61 today. This is a look back at what I said, what actually happened, and which parts of the case still hold at twice the price.

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This post is not a victory lap.

It is the exercise I try to do whenever a position moves a long way in a short time.

On June 19 I wrote up a US-listed rare disease company and initiated a 5% position at $30.70.

The stock trades at around $61 today.

That is a gain of roughly 100% in 76 days. The position has doubled.

This post goes through the June thesis pillar by pillar, what the run-up has and has not changed, the eight risks I listed then and where each stands now, and what I am doing with the position.