The SCRai: 10 Asymmetric Ideas Beyond the Portfolio
Three Elevator Pitches + Seven Other Asymmetric Ideas
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The reality of concentrated investing is simple: you find far more exceptional opportunities than any single portfolio can hold.
A portfolio requires careful construction.
Positions need to work in harmony.
Correlations matter.
Concentration demands the highest conviction.
But that leaves dozens of interesting ideas on the table.
The Schwar Capital Research Asymmetry Index (SCRai) captures these opportunities.
Each one reflects what I view as an asymmetric setup - though not necessarily suitable for my current portfolio at this moment.
Building the Foundation
This first post establishes the foundation of the index.
Today’s post includes the first 10 stocks to form the SCRai, along with full elevator pitches for 3 of them.
Over the next few weeks, the remaining 7 stocks will receive longer Cliff Notes outlining their theses before I add more stocks to the index.
Stock #1: Kinsale Capital Group (KNSL)
An excess and surplus insurance specialist that combines GEICO’s low-cost model with monopolistic underwriting in underserved niches. Founded in 2009 by Michael Kehoe, Kinsale operates with a 21% expense ratio versus 35-40% for competitors, while generating 27% annualized operating ROE and maintaining a 74.9% combined ratio in Q3 2025 - meaning they earn $25 profit on every $100 of premiums collected. The company breaks from industry convention by never outsourcing underwriting, keeping all risk pricing in-house and leveraging technology to maintain discipline. Q3 2025 results showed net income up 24% YoY to $141.6M, operating earnings of $5.21 per diluted share (up 24%), and book value per share surging to $80.19 from $63.75 at year-end 2024.
The share price has pulled back significantly from its high of $548, now trading at $384 and roughly 20x earnings. For a founder-led insurance compounder with 27% operating ROE, a 74.9% combined ratio, and massive runway in an underserved market, the valuation looks compelling in my opinion. The qualitative factors (sustainable competitive advantages, aligned management, disciplined underwriting) are exceptional. This isn’t incrementally better than competitors; it’s fundamentally different.
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