30.11% Return in 25 Days - Full Breakdown
If you only read one thing this week, it should be this...
To read our full disclaimer, click here.
If you only read one thing this week, it should be this.
If you've been following along recently, you'll know we've been laser-focused on one stock.
A position we described as the most asymmetric setup we've ever seen.
It was heads you win now, tails you win in the long run.
Well, the coin landed on heads.
And we won bigger than anticipated.
30.11% in 25 days.
This brings our YTD performance to 27.4%.
Today we're disclosing the position we've been discussing for weeks, walking through the complete timeline, and sharing what we're doing next.
As always, everything you read on Schwar Capital is not investment advice, just a record of our personal opinions and process.
Let's get into it.
The Stock: Alpha Group International
For complete transparency, we've removed the paywall on all related posts so you can see our exact thought process throughout.
Here's the timeline:
Our first post was June 6th, where we outlined the full company breakdown:
On June 25th, after weeks building conviction, we bought at around £31.60 per share - 10.7% of the portfolio.
By June 27th, we published our heads/tails thesis explaining the buyout mechanics and added more - now 12.78%:
A lot of people upgraded to paid subscriptions that day, and I'm sure they're quite happy to have read our opinions and thoughts on the stock now.
July 2nd: Increased further to about 20% (the catalyst deadline was July 7th).
July 11th: When the deadline extended, we explained why this actually increased our conviction and predicted the final offer between 3,500-4,000 pence per share:
And that brings us to today.
Alpha shares jumped 25% on the news, delivering our total return of just over 30% in 25 days.
Not bad going.
Lessons and Transparency
Here's proof we follow the philosophy we've outlined:
✓ Found a highly asymmetric setup
✓ Simple heads/tails thesis
✓ Built conviction and concentrated heavily
✓ Made it our largest position
And it paid off.
But here's what matters most:
This was one of two scenarios.
It could have gone the other way.
A story of compounding and waiting, maybe greater returns but over a much longer timeframe.
What really matters is we stuck to our process.
And we're getting results to show for it.
If you like how we invest and think, and want to stay informed on our opinions, feel free to upgrade and join the 72 other people who knew about Alpha Group International over a month ago.
Thanks,
Dom
Schwar Capital
Disclaimer: The content provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. The opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Schwar Capital. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The author may or may not hold positions in the stocks or other financial instruments mentioned. Always do your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. You can see our full disclaimer here.
Even with a tiny portfolio this paid already the annual subacription. Great value in here, thank you!
Congrats great tip! happy to participate in the party but not enough :) . Sold today and bought some OTIS and Equifax with the proceeds!