Sorry to spell out my point in more detail. P/E and EPS aren’t the metrics you want to use here - especially not for Topicus with all the minority investments and NCIs. Topicus mgmt publishes a metric called FCF available to shareholders (FCFAS) that removes the noise. James Emanuel has written extensively about the challenges of valuing Topicus, the pitfalls of P/E driven approaches, the alt (and varied) approaches analysts covering the stock use (here: https://open.substack.com/pub/rockandturner/p/topicus-pt-2-how-to-value-topicus?r=d4esp&utm_medium=ios).
Thanks again for a great write up and all your great work!
Disclosure: I’m long both Topicus and Constellation.
Thanks JP Buongiorno. My calculations, as mentioned, were back-of-the-napkin and very rough, but you’re absolutely right on this. I’ll come up with some better price targets and valuation work on all three and publish it next week.
Topicus is about 80 eur (130 CAD). So the return will be similar as CSU.
Sorry JZ, mixed the currencies in Topicus valuation section. All fixed now.
Not to mention you have to adjust starting Topicus EPS for the impact of Asseco one time transaction costs and equity method accounting impact.
It was only the currency symbols that were incorrect - my 2026 EPS figures are already adjusted for those factors.
Sorry to spell out my point in more detail. P/E and EPS aren’t the metrics you want to use here - especially not for Topicus with all the minority investments and NCIs. Topicus mgmt publishes a metric called FCF available to shareholders (FCFAS) that removes the noise. James Emanuel has written extensively about the challenges of valuing Topicus, the pitfalls of P/E driven approaches, the alt (and varied) approaches analysts covering the stock use (here: https://open.substack.com/pub/rockandturner/p/topicus-pt-2-how-to-value-topicus?r=d4esp&utm_medium=ios).
Thanks again for a great write up and all your great work!
Disclosure: I’m long both Topicus and Constellation.
Thanks JP Buongiorno. My calculations, as mentioned, were back-of-the-napkin and very rough, but you’re absolutely right on this. I’ll come up with some better price targets and valuation work on all three and publish it next week.
Thank you!! 🙏🏻
Yeah I think you mixed currencies in topicus valuation section
Thanks for spotting this!