There’s something about your writing that really resonates with me. It’s not just the content, but the way you present it—with clarity, depth, and a touch of personality that makes it enjoyable to read. I’m so glad I found your newsletter. I subbed.
"When the odds are greatly in your favour, bet heavily."
Absolutely true! This has even been proved mathematically with the Kelly criterion, a bet sizing framework that optimizes portfolio growth rate given known win probability and odds.
We seldom know these inputs with precision in practice. Still, I think it provides a useful framework in terms of thinking about investments:
Asymmetry is the heart of investing. Great article!
Thanks Arny!
There’s something about your writing that really resonates with me. It’s not just the content, but the way you present it—with clarity, depth, and a touch of personality that makes it enjoyable to read. I’m so glad I found your newsletter. I subbed.
Thanks for the kind words Abhaya
Thank you so much for the comment, let's connect!
"When the odds are greatly in your favour, bet heavily."
Absolutely true! This has even been proved mathematically with the Kelly criterion, a bet sizing framework that optimizes portfolio growth rate given known win probability and odds.
We seldom know these inputs with precision in practice. Still, I think it provides a useful framework in terms of thinking about investments:
https://taalmod.substack.com/p/kelly-criterion-framework-favorable-bets-investing
Thanks for the great article!