Spectra Systems: Record Earnings, 5.4x Fwd P/E, and the Market Still Doesn't Get It ($SPSY.L)

A contracted business-model transition, priced as if nothing has changed.

To read our full disclaimer, click here.

• Revenue up 54%.

• Adjusted EBITDA up 101%.

• Record earnings on track.

• And a forward P/E of 5.4x.

Two years ago, Spectra Systems was a niche supplier of covert authentication materials to central banks.

Lumpy revenue. Low visibility. Valued like a contractor.

Today, the company’s hardware, software, and IP are embedded directly into national banknote authentication infrastructure. In November, Spectra signed a $6.7 million maintenance contract running through 2030 - converting what was project revenue into contracted recurring revenue.

This is the proof point. Recurring revenue is no longer a thesis. It’s on the books.

The market continues to value Spectra as if nothing has changed. At £1.55, you’re paying 5.4x forward earnings for a business transitioning to majority-recurring revenue with 40%+ margins. The base case - no new contracts, just normalization - supports a double from here.

Everything else is free optionality: polymer substrate commercialization, follow-on sensor systems, tax stamp expansion, gaming software compounding quietly in the background.

This is my second largest position heading into 2026.

Here are the details: