I get the “one-foot bar” argument, but at this price PayPal may not need a turnaround at all. If cash flows are merely stable and buybacks continue, the stock can work through math and time, not narrative. Complexity feels obvious, what’s less obvious is that expectations are already near the floor. When a business doesn’t have to be great, just not worse, the bar to upside may actually be lower than it looks…
Appreciate the comment Tarun. "Merely stable" isn't a given in my opinion. Transactions per active account declining, active accounts flat, third CEO in three years, competition pressing from every angle. Stable is a bet, not a baseline. Don't get me wrong, at this price it's probably an asymmetric bet. But the whole point is that I believe there are better CAGRs elsewhere with simpler theses and less to figure out.
I get the “one-foot bar” argument, but at this price PayPal may not need a turnaround at all. If cash flows are merely stable and buybacks continue, the stock can work through math and time, not narrative. Complexity feels obvious, what’s less obvious is that expectations are already near the floor. When a business doesn’t have to be great, just not worse, the bar to upside may actually be lower than it looks…
Appreciate the comment Tarun. "Merely stable" isn't a given in my opinion. Transactions per active account declining, active accounts flat, third CEO in three years, competition pressing from every angle. Stable is a bet, not a baseline. Don't get me wrong, at this price it's probably an asymmetric bet. But the whole point is that I believe there are better CAGRs elsewhere with simpler theses and less to figure out.
Well put.
Thanks!
Just want to say thank you for writing this out! Have a great weekend 😁
No problem Tank - you too!