My Price Targets For Every Position In The Portfolio
5-Year Price Targets For A Concentrated Microcap Portfolio.
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I run a concentrated portfolio of micro and small-cap stocks. Eight positions. Five countries. Four currencies.
These are my personal price targets for every position I own:
I want to emphasise that word: personal.
These are not recommendations. They are not forecasts. They are how I - one investor, running one concentrated portfolio - think about the range of outcomes for the businesses I’ve chosen to own.
I get asked about price targets more than anything else.
Fair question.
But I’ve always resisted publishing a single number because a price target without context is worse than useless.
It creates false precision. It anchors you to a figure without understanding the assumptions behind it.
So instead of one number, I’m giving you three scenarios for every position: bear, base, and bull.
Every assumption visible. Every input transparent. You can disagree with any number and plug in your own.
This is how I actually think about valuation - not as a precise forecast, but as a range of outcomes weighted by probability. I prefer to be roughly right rather than precisely wrong.
The portfolio is constructed around a few principles that I come back to again and again:
Asymmetric risk/reward. I want to risk 1 to make 3, not the other way around.
Simple thesis, few key drivers. If I need a spreadsheet with 47 tabs to justify the investment, I’m probably fooling myself.
Catalysts matter. Cheap alone isn’t enough. Something needs to change.
These are small, concentrated bets. I own eight stocks, not eighty. That’s a deliberate choice. I’d rather know eight businesses deeply than own forty I half-understand.
In the rest of this post, I walk through every position with the full valuation model - current price, key financials, five-year bear/base/bull scenarios, implied price targets, and why I own each one.