EPS Up 100%, 2.8x EV/EBITDA, and 4.5x Upside If the Optionality Hits
The most asymmetric setup in the portfolio just got stronger.
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Spectra Systems published its audited full-year results for 2025 this morning.
The headline: record everything.
Revenue grew 30.7% to $64.3 million.
Adjusted EBITDA surged 82.9% to $27.3 million.
Adjusted EPS doubled to $0.378.
Net income rose 136% to $20.1 million.
Operating profit more than doubled to $24.3 million.
As of writing the stock is up 11% today at 140p. The market cap is approximately £68 million.
Spectra carries $14.8 million in unrestricted cash against $3.3 million of debt. That is a net cash position of approximately £9.1 million, or roughly 13% of the entire market cap. Strip that out and the enterprise value is approximately £59 million.
On trailing numbers, that gives you an EV/EBITDA of 2.8x.
A trailing P/E of 4.2x.
For a business with contracted recurring revenue, 40%+ operating margins, and monopolistic switching costs embedded in central bank infrastructure.
In January, I wrote that the market was valuing Spectra as if the business-model transition had not happened. Three months later, the company has delivered record results across every metric, and the stock is actually lower than when I wrote the thesis.
The valuation gap has widened.
In the rest of this post, I cover:
The full-year numbers and what they tell us
Segment-by-segment performance
The balance sheet transformation and downside protection
What 2026 actually looks like as sensor revenue rolls off
Bear, base, and bull case valuations
Key developments and what I am watching